masterclasses
Monday, 5 January 2009
CHRONIQUE
Principe de précaution
Ce billet est la continuation du précédent : "en relisant Goethe". Il est destiné à limiter les dégâts dûs à mon serveur à la noix, réseau orange.
En relisant Goethe (suite).
(Faust saisit le livre et prononce le signe de l'Esprit, l'air mystérieux. Une flamme rougeâtre s'allume, l'Esprit apparaît dans la flamme.
L'ESPRIT:
Qui m'appelle?
FAUST (détournant son visage)
Effrayante vision !
L'ESPRIT
Tu m'as attiré avec force,
tu as longtemps aspiré à ma sphère,
et maintenant...
FAUST
Hélas ! Je ne le supporte pas !
Commentaires
L'excitation de Faust se mue en terreur sacrée. Les points d'exclamation sont toujours aussi nombreux. Il ne peut supporter la présence de l'Esprit. Ce dernier le raille et lui reproche son manque de courage, en le traitant de ver craintif voulant échapper à son étreinte.
FAUST
Dois-je, être de flamme,reculer devant toi?
C'est moi, je suis Faust, je suis ton égal !
L'ESPRIT
Dans les flots de la vie, dans le torrent des actes,
je monte et je descends,
je souffle ici et là,
naissance et tombe,
océan éternel,
va et vient,
vie incandescente.
C'est ainsi que je travaille au métier sonore du temps
et ourdis le vêtement vivant de la divinité.
FAUST
Toi qui dans ton vol parcours le vaste monde,
Esprit industrieux, comme je me sens proche de toi !
L'ESPRIT
Tu ressembles à l'Esprit que tu conçois,
pas à moi ! (Il disparaît)
Ces vers splendides dénotes plusieurs réminiscences. L'ERDGEIST ressemble à s'y méprendre à Ariel, l'esprit de la Tempête, oeuvre ultime et ésotérique de Shakespeare. De même la description de l'Erdgeist est pleine de sous-entendus ésotériques qui acroissent sa puissance d'évocation. Plus tard, dans le début du second Faust, on entendra sonner les cloches du temps pour figurer le passage des heures. Schumann a mis en musique d'une façon remarquable la texture sonore qui imprime le texte et le son, de l'Erdgeist.
On admirera l'extrême concision du discours, les phrases courtes dont le sens déjoue la prétention de Faust. La scène se conclut sur un anticlimax : "tu ressembles à l'Esprit que tu saisis, pas à moi ! L'anticlimax se prolonge et s'accentue avec l'arrivée du cuistre Wagner en robe de chambre et en bonnet de nuit, une lampe à la main, intervention aggravée par ses propos prosaïques : "Pardon ! Je vous entends déclamer.; vous lisiez sans doute une tragédie grecque?
PROCHAIN BILLET : EN RELISANT SHAKESPEARE.La nuit des Rois.
CHRONIQUE
Citations
Je viens de terminer mon billet du 4 janvier et je vais essayer de prendre un peu de repos. A tout à l'heure.
Je suis tellement furax que je me laisse aller à écrire de mots quime sont inhabituels. Faute des moyens nécessaires, (un serveur professionnel ruineux) je dois me rabattre sur un serveur de m... Et s'agissant d'Orange, le mot est faible. C'est toujours la même erreur : une page apparaît inopinément m'annonçant que mont code est erroné (ce qui est évidemment faux). Lorsque je le réintroduit tout s'efface, en dépit du fait que j'enregistre presque à chaque paragraphe. Me voici donc contraint à recommencer ce billet, et vous constaterez par vous même que ce n'est pas un petit travail.
En relisant Goethe
Voici un des passages de Faust qui m'ont le plus impressionnés.
Le docteur Faust, blasé, parvient à entrer en communication avec l'esprit de la terre, der Erdgeist.
Des nuées se forment au dessus de moi...
la lune voile sa lumière...
la lampe s'éteint...
une vapeur s'étend !
Des raies rouges palpitent
autour de ma tête... un frisson glacé
tombe de la voute
et me saisit !
Je le sens, tu planes autour de moi, Esprit que j'implore,
démasque-toi !
Ah ! Quel déchirement dans mon coeur !
Tous mes sens
s'exaltent en sensations nouvelles !
Je sens que tout mon coeur t'est livré !
Il le faut ! Il le faut ! M'en coûtât-t-il la vie !
Commentaires
Deux signes de ponctuation nous frappent par leur abondance, 1. les points d'exclamation (9 pour 15 vers) 2. les ponts de suspension (4 qu'il faut interprêter dans le texte allemand par des tirets, qui loin de représenter une hésitation, ont pour fonction d'imprimer au texte un débit saccadé.
A suivre dans le prochain billet pour éviter les accidents.
Sunday, 4 January 2009
CHRONIQUE
Réminiscences
Non. Je n'ai pas été malade. Pas au point de ne pas rédiger mon blog, en tout cas. J'ai simplement décidé de dormir. Dormir c'est tomber pendant trois à cinq heures dans la torpeur des anesthésiques. Pendant ces heures, une douleur agaçante ne me laisse pas de répit, ce qui fait que bien souvent mes yeux se ferment pendant mes consultations. Mon esprit est alerte, je suis tout ouïe mais mes paupières sont closes. J'en avertis évidemment mes clients qui sont ravis, car enfin, ils peuvent s'exprimer librement! En effet j'ai également du mal à parler.
Une des raisons de mon absence du blog a été également la mise au point des dix départements de la deuxième fondation. Si elle voit le jour, ce sera la plus haute densité d'information publiée, monnaies comprises. Je dis densité et non contenu ou richesse. Toute la centaine de pièces récoltées ou prévues au programme, se trouvent certes dans la plupart des grandes bibliothèques publiques ou des prestigieuses fondations comme Getty à Malibu. Mais elles sont noyées dans une bonne centaine... de mille livres de qualité comparable ou supérieure. Tirer un enseignement synthétique d'un tel océan, est pratiquement impossible, outre la difficulté d'accès aux pièces.
Cette lisibilité est améliorée par la présentation hautement structurée qui dégage des groupements qui parlent à tous : grands voyages, découvertes scientifiques, image de l'homme sur lui-même.
Chacun des regroupements ou "départements" présentent leur contenu d'une manière dynamique, chronologique, qui fait ressortir l'évolution des idées et de la pensée humaine au travers de ses médias. Ainsi l'héliocentrisme succède à Ptolémée qui pensait que la terre était plate et le centre de l'univers, vision conforme à la bible qui dit que Dieu arrêta à Jericho la course du soleil pôur protéger les juifs. Galilée, dont nous avons un des trois exemplaires dédicacés de la popularisation de Copernic dut abjurer ses idées pour ne pas subir le sort de Giordano Bruno, brûlé vif.
J'ai beaucoup de mal à compléter mon travail, tant la matière devient foisonnante (l'évolution de la litterature et de la poésie, que choisir?).
Grâce à Claude Burgan pour les monnaies et Stéphane Chavreuil pour les éditions originales, il a été possible de constituer un "chemin de fer" qui sert de guide au choix des pièces. J'ai l'intention d'éditer en très petite quantité les résultats de ce travail, et les mettre à la disposition des internautes, moyennement une participation aux frais (encre, papier, photocopie, reliure). Avis aux amateurs!
Je suis furieux. La mention " vous avez entré un code erroné" (ce qui est évidemment faux) est reparue, effaçant la majeure partie de mon billet ! Il me faut tout recommencer.
À propos de la "sonate au clair de lune"
Cette oeuvre rabachée me donne l'occasion de comparer trois niveaux de compréhension.
Nous rencontrons le premier, dans l'ouvrage de Guy Sacre : La musique de piano, dictionnaire des compositeurs et des oeuvres (Robert Laffont 1998). Mais on est loin des ouvrages populaires anglo-saxons, accessibles et primaires. La prose de Sacre est une bouillie typiquement française où la prétention au style précieux et la recherche du mot original, se conjugue à des notations subjectives et des jugements à l'emporte pièce. A propos du premier pouvement de l'Op.27 N°1 Quasi una fantasia, il attribue le titre au poète Rellstab qui le pardonne d'avoir "évoqué un clair de lune sur le lac des Quatre Cantons". Si l'on tient compte du contexte, il s'agit d'une plaisanterie destinée à dissiper l'atmosphère oppressante que Beethoven imprimait à son jeu. Il serait question par antiphrase " d'une promenade en barque de deux amoureux sur le lac des Quatres-Cantons".
On trouve chez Sacre des formules éclairantes telles : " Est-ce un thème d'ailleurs? Berlioz y voyait, plus justement, "l'efflorescence mélodique de cette sombre harmonie" Morceau indéniablement nocturne, et déjà, avant Brahms, une berceuse pour les douleurs.
Pour Guy Sacre, la fin est murmurée, "enfouie au plus profond du clavier alors que le thème de l'allegretto est naïf et étonné."
Ça commence bien : "Frappant est le début de la "sonate au clair de lune",... les sonorités gentiment voilées, la mesure en deux temps endépit de la mention "Adagio Sostenuto" qui empêche la musique de devenir lugubre. Ludwig Rellstab, un critique musical, affirma que l'ambiance du premier mouvement lui rappelait la magie du clair de lune sur le lac de Lucerne.
Pour le reste, l'universellement applaudi (d'après l'éditeur) Robert Taub, offre des indications qui rappellent les recettes pour préparer un bon pudding de Noël. "Culinarisch" pourrait -on dire méchamment. Cela rappelle les éditions raisonnées de Schnabel, mais un degré au dessous. La photo où Taub essaie de paraître un concertiste professionnel, est empreinte de sérieux et de conscience professionnelle.
Enfin, une édition professionnelle ! Jones s'interroge sur le sens et la conception de la Sonate, plutôt que de notes subjectives d'interprétation ou pire. On y découvre des données tangibles qui changent radicalement notre apprehension de cette oeuvre rabachée.
Tout d'abord Jones situe l'oeuvre dans le contexte musical de l'époque, celui que connaissait le public et auquel le compositeur se conformer : le genre " funèbre". Ses dispositifs formels en relation avec la mort et la souffrance ont été développés pendant tout le XVIIe et le XIIIe siècle. Citons : Un lamento à la basse, formes mélodiques dérivées du plain-chant, formules d'accompagnement répétitives, figures chromatiques. Jones montre comment Beethoven utilise ces dispositifs avec une flexibilité inédite. Le glas se retrouvera dans la marche funèbre sur la mort d'un héros, où dominent les notes pointées.
Après avoir cité les musicologues les plus autorisés, Jones met en évidence la complexité formelle et préméditée de l'AdagioSostenuto, et notamment la fusion entre la forme sonate et la chanson strophique. Mais au lieu d'une confrontation dialectique, on découvre une permutation incessante du matériau dont l'apogée domine au centre du mouvement. Par ailleurs le potentiel expressif et la forte tension harmonique, sont constamment étouffés par Beethoven, comme si les harmonies compressées étaient plus que le mouvement pouvait supporter.
Jones met en évidence les liens entre l'Allegretto et l'Adagio Sostenuto qui justifient l'attacca qui fait du 2ème Mvt, un prolongement du premier. En revanche le presto agitato doit être bien séparé. Tout le drame latent du premier mouvement explose dans le finale vengeur qui n'est qu'une recomposition du début, sous une forme sonate particulièrement rigoureuse, plus même que n'importe quelle oeuvre antérieure.
Il est évident que l'étude sérieuse de l'oeuvre conduit à une interprétation et une exécution radicalement opposée de celles entendue chez les concertistes les plus illustres, qui se conforment à une tradition romantique.
Continuer à lire "Le journal du 4 janvier 2009"
Saturday, 13 December 2008
CHRONICLE
Value generator scales – HUMELD
The great french poët wrote : « it’s not the great ideas which moves crowds but the great emotions. »
In fact ideas could be the frame of emotions. The revolutionary formula :
« liberty, equality, fraternity » as contradictory as it could be, was a support of torbid feelings as utopia, jealousy, hatred, negation of personality, etc.
But how define emotions ? Or more precisely categories of feelings, which can move crowds as individuals ?
To know it, you must like a child ask the question : why ? until you have the answer : « I don’t know » or « it’s like this » or « because it’s what I want », or « I want this because I want it ».
A long lasting and painstacking survey could reduce the various kind of motivations which push people to act, to six primary scales.
I used for that, factorial analysis that i learned and practized during years when I was a student at INNETOP, (to day Institute of industrial psychology).
It is not the place, in this popularized talk to detail the method but anyone can understand the result of this reduction.
The individuals acts according to six scales, each one being an oriented vector, having a negative pole and a positive one - between the (+) and the (–)pole, we can have many hues like for example a neutral pole (o) (neither-nor), and intermediary values. A scale who admit only the two pole is said « dichotomic » and denotes a special, fanatic way of thinking. « Either black or white, you’re my friend or my enemy ! »
Continuer à lire "The december 11 papers"
Sunday, 7 December 2008
CHRONICLE
The metasystems theory II
THE MEANING OF MEANING
This is the title of the book of Richard and Ogden about the various definitions of the word, which are as numerous than those of the word "system".
The general concept of meaning deals with De Saussure statement about the nature of language. For the first and the greatest pioneer of the linguists, a word as a sentence, a symbol or a sign, are like the both sides of a sheet of paper : the first is the signified SG the second the signifier SN. When you cut the sheet with scissors you cut in the same time the two sides.
The signified SG bears the meaning. It is the object itself: a cow, a headache, your mother... The SN is what stands for the signifier : the words [COW] or [MUCCA] or [VACCA] or the drawing of a cow... or the sentence [MAL DI TESTA],or [MAMMA], [MUTTER] etc... The SN can be too a statue, a drawing, a painting, a symbol etc.
In the set theory the relations between the SG and the SN is named a mapping and the various kind of mapping describe approximatively the typologies of meanings.
The systems theory add complexity to the concept of mapping, because one's consider not only the mapping between the elements of the first and second set, but too the mapping of the relations (structure or characteristic). In other words, the relation between the word (or the model) and the thing, can vary from a purely conventional (code) to a trompe-l'oeil which leads to fraud and deceit.
You remember perharps that there was in ancient Greece a contest between Phidias the greatest sculptor of the classical style and another talented artist. The day of the contest, two paintings were exhibited, both hidden behind a red curtain. The Phidias challenger pulled the curtain of his masterpiece, and a magnificent bunch appear, so lifelike that very soon the painting was covered by a lot of birds, which wanted to pick up the grape. Under a thunderous applause the triumphant artist summoned Phidias : open your curtain, and show us if you can surpass my tour de force! But Phidias did not move and the curtain was closed. "Draw the curtain! " protested the assistance. Phidias told them : it is the painting you see, the curtain is the painting. If my challenger deceived birds, I deceived men.
As I tried to tell it, this story is revealing of the present mix up of reality and fiction. More and more, people confuses virtual images and facts and reality. But the birds could not eat painted grapes, and you cannot grasp the feeling and humanity which permeates the on-live concert or the real love. Pornography on the screen kills sensuality and even sex.
I would like to give you another revealing example of the confusion between reality (the Signified) and the model which stands for it (The Signifier).
You know what voodoo is. A shaman or a wizard moulds the image of an enemy. This small statue is the model of the real man. When the wizard drives a stake into the heart of the figurine with a long needle, the enemy will be felled by a heart attack, and in a similar way if it is the brain that is touched, the enemy could be struck by a brain desease.
THE MAGICAL THINKING
It appears when we believe that the word (or the symbol) could retain properties for the thing. I.e. that when the reality could be substitued by a mediator. Alfred Korzybski and S.E. Hayakawa, were the most celebrated researcher in the field of the discipline named Semantics which explores the relations between the signs and symbols and what they represent. General Semantics, founded by Korzybski, struggles against the pitfalls of abstraction. He points to an object and declares : "Don't say this is a pant, show it with your fingers! The meaning is not the word, it is the thing!"
An American told ten years ago to a japanese engineer : "You're great! You get a computer for the price of a steak. " The japanese answered smiling : "We are miserable. We sell a steak for the price of a computer! But nobody can eat a computer!"
WHY MODERN ECONOMY IS A MAGIC THINKING ?
One of my colleagues at Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, in Paris, the celebrated Jacques Lesourne, a national glory, made a scandal. He claimed at his inaugural lesson, that one of factor of success in a entreprise was the quality of the management. For the economist orthodoxy, only external measurable factors were admitted. Dogma was most important of common sense, not to speak of reality.
Nothing is changed in the magic world of finance and of economy. In a study of monetary evolution, in the last papers, I demonstrated how the link between the sign (the coin or the numerical computerized statement) was built, then enriched by aesthetic and propaganda values, until the money unit was deprived of all its substance. The gold standard which insured the link between the signifier (the coin, or the numerical computerized statement) and the signified (the gold, military power,worldwide domination, industrial wealth) or, in the archaïc era, between 650 BC, a bull, a wife or two slaves.
When the US had to affront the enormous expenditures of Vet-Nam war, all the gold of Fort Knox was in shortage, it was not sufficient enough to insure the convertibility of dollar in gold. Instead of stopping the war, or reduce government and military expenditures, they decreed the breaking of the semantic link between Signifier and signified. (Bretton Woods, 1944)
Henceforth the meaning of a signifier was a signifier! They could print banknotes ad infinitum .
To tell the truth, the signifier doesn't always stand for another signifier, but with a virtual, ghostly signified. For example, the counterpart of the banknote, is not the gold or any physical good, but hope of future huge benefits, the conviction that the country cannot collapse, that monetary system will be inescapable, that, as all wants the monetary worldwide organization it will be eternal.
Unfortunately this is wishful thinking. Nowadays, the states are in bankrupcy, and rich of debts. The computer and electronic industry don't creates any wealth, but the hope to reduce costs, hope all the time deceived. The Central Banks don't help producers of real wealth, as cars, houses for middle class, schools or planes, but bankers which are responsible of present state of affairs. If technology is well oriented with sustained development, it degenerates with internet, gigantic servers etc...
A proof of the artificiality of the economic system, is that it plays with soap bubbles. A pinprick is sufficient to reduce it at a vacuum cleaning state. Consider the Lehmann Brothers case. The hatred of two men, was enough to get rid of a prosperous bank 150 years old. Years of dedicated work and ultracompetent employees were destroyed in few days. What remained was empty space, complete vacuum. Why?
It is because the vacuum was yet in the bank, as in other banks. The activity of the bank represented figures, numbers, accounting units, not anything you could touch, feel, eat or use for your pleasure and every day life.
It would be much more difficult to get rid of machines, ground, in a car factory! Hatred would be not sufficient, the only thing it would do, is a transfer of share holders. The material goods and services would leave a trace.
NEXT NOTES
HOW TO GET RID OF THE INTERNET?
WHY A MONETARY SYSTEM?
THE POWER OF THE MASS DISTRACTION ARMS
THE SEMANTIC THRESHOLD
Bruno Lussato
Friday, 5 December 2008
CHRONICLE
The metasystems theory
A POPULARIZATION
President Herriot told us than culture is what it remains when you have all forgotten. I believe that the foundations and basic roots of systems theories are buried somehere in my brain, but I forgot them. I studied them as a student, then during my pilgrimage to laboratories of such geniuses as Herbert Simon, or Pr. Forrester, and in fine, as an adjunct professor in the S cube (Social Science Systems) at the Wharton School, Penn. This paper concerns an idea about what is a System, the system approach, and the essential I retained of this enormous amount of information, I gathered during my encounters with the great founders of the systemic approach.
WHAT IS A SYSTEM?
There are more than 80 définitions of the concept from the most general (Klir and Valach) onto the most elaborate (Stafford Beer,my collegue at Wharton).
KLÌR AND VALACH
A System S results from the coupling os an Universum U and a characteristic A.
U is the population of the system, ie the number of elements which composes the system. A is the number of relations which interwines the elements of S. When each element is related to all the other elements, A is saturate and the graph which formalize it is strongly connected.
WHAT IS COMPLEXITY?
It is the product of A and U. C= A x U. In other terms, complexity increases when the population of a system and/or the number of connections increases too. For example, when one's ages, he loses neurones : U decreases. But the connections which integrates each neurone to all the others increases considerably. (Of course not in such illness as Alzeihmer's disease). Another example is the complexity of our planet. Not only population is exponentially growing, but the number of connections, thanks to internet, telephone and TV, growth even quicker, the result being a tremendous increase in complexity.
WHAT IS A DISCONTINUITY?
The Teilhard de Chardin disciple Lecompte du Nouÿ was the author of a revolutionary théory. To make a long story short let us affirm that when you cross a threshold toward an infinite dimensional change, new properties emerges. And not gradually but suddenly. Infinite decrease in weight and size, transform our classical experience, in quantum physics. Fishes are soluble, you're simultaneously here and everywhere in the galaxy, your cat is alive AND dead. Impossible ro understand for common brains. And don't forget that such a radical change appears at the treshold of 1014 grams, without transition, in one instant. Such behavior is called a discontinuity.
Another discontinuity appears when you reach the infinitely large distances. What emerges is relativity theory, no less disturbing than Quantum theory. How is it possible to think that when few days are lived by an austronaut, one hundred years passed on our planet?
The last discontinuity, but not the least, concerns the crossing the threshold of complexity. A new property emerges brutally in three steps:
1. when inanimate matter becomes complex, due to intricate loops of reactions, life appears.
2. The second step concerns brain complexity : the cousciousness is the result. A cow is conscious of its surroundings.
3. The third step appears with the increase of the complexity of the brain, self consciousness appears. The man is conscious, and he is conscious that he is conscious.
MODERN MAN IS TRAINED NOT ACCEPT DISCONTINUITY
We must attribute this severe limitation of mind, to the dictatorship of neo darwinism theory. In this doctrine, the concept of change by micromutations by essays and errors is a dogma. Only hazard can change this principle. The genetis and biology engineering were very well adapted to this model, and as they are a enormous source of profit, the the neodarwinian dogma is universally accepted, even if in medicine other paths could be explored.
Nevertheless, there is a branch of knowledge which rejects categorically the neo-darwinian dogma : the palaeontology.
According to new-darwinian doctrine, a reptile becomes a bird by small steps, small improvements. But it is impossible. To fly out of his nest, the small bird needs the concomitance of numerous factors such as the weight of the bones, the proportion between the size of the wings and that of the body, a brain change in structure, etc. If all these factors are not present in the same time, the small bird is unable to fly, falls from the nest and crashes. Therefore the chances of survival of a bird according to micromutations are nearly zero. Jean Stone has written a book about this subject, but Stone is a palaeontologist, not a biologist. That means that his status is much lower!
DISCONTINUITY AND CATASTROPHE THEORY
René Thom distinguished many varieties of discontinuities, that he calls catastrophes. The term is deceiving as all the discontinuities are not all catastrophic for us, but when a scientist don't want creates neologisms, he uses old terms in a specific ways. Instead creating new words for the discontinuity concept, he preferred to use the current word in a different sense.
The most serious catastroph that can jeopardize our civilization, consist in the fantastic increase of complexity due to modern real time means of communication. All the brains are intervconnected to acentral superbrain which acts according to its will and interests. Joël de Rosnay, a popular journalist wrote in his book on systems theory, that a new system : the sybionte, would dominates the world. It would be connected to all the brains of the planet and would control our behavior and our value scales. The worst is that this aristocratic person, links oriented, would like very much the deprivation of part of our autonomy for the sake of public intereste. Instead the ego-citizens, we would be changed in equal citizens (citoyens egaux).
Is such an utopia possible. Are we loosing our power, our human control on events to obey to a superior systems which could decides for us?
JAY FORRESTER AND THE ECOLOGY CONCEPT
I met Forrester in his laboratory, at M.I.T. Professor Forrester is one of the major figures of the realm of the system approach. He was a gentleman farmer and became immensely rich with his discovery of the tores memory. But his enormous fame came from his book Industrial Dynamics, followed by Urban dynamics and World dynamics.
As a representative of the system theory, Forrester was a powerful opponent to the tenants of system analysis. The systems analysis approach declares that to know an organization, you must study with the greatest décision, as painstaking as it can be, each of the elements which intervenes in its functioning.
On the contrary systemic approach put the emphasis on the relations. The behavior of a systems is therefore defined by the structure of its relation agencement. Forrester considers an organization as a fitting of elements and of channels animated by five sort of lows: monetary,(financial flows) capital (machines, land, etc), machine (computers, robots, etc), manpower (number and level of employees) and... psychologicological (motivation, creativity, ambiance, courage, entrepreneurial spirit etc.). All these elements and these channels where defined by complex level and flow equations. But the complexity of the system was fast growing with the predominance of positive or negative feed-back loops at such extent that thousand and millions of equations were necessary to calculate the behavior of the systems.
Instead of undertaking such an impossible task, Forrester had the idea to built a system homomorphous (i.e. analogical and simplified) of the actual system. Simulation and mapping, find their roots in this novation. Moreover, Forrester studied the way to design a cybernetic system, who could function eternally, craeting and destroying life, in a close cicuit and elaborate loops of feedback. He called ECOLOGY the designing of such systems, similar to Earth natural regulation.
I described the man who was facing me, a young student without prestige. And the professor was tall, blue eyed, staring at me with a metallic glance, reinforced by very fine silver-rimmed spectacles. He confessed that he was very embarrassed to define the psychological flows, and he coul'd not attend any cooperation with psychologists, awful people!
He was furious against Pears and Meadows, charlatans that claimed the end of the world for the end of the century, on the bais of a small model of 1200 equations Appointed by Club de Rome, presided by Aurelio Peccei, president of Fiat, they write a book which had an enormous influence, up to now : Halte à la croissance! , stop the growth ! His predictions were false but they influenced films as Space Odissey, Matrix, Green Soyeland, or Brazil. They wher among the generators of the ecologist movement, and of long-lasting devlopment current.
THE PRESENT OUTCOMES OF P.AND M. PREDICTIONS
Of course, the predictions of Pears and Meadows about the shortage of energy and gaz oil resources, appears today to be utopian and even ridiculous. But they had a positive consequence : to stress the importance of nature and the emergence of negative outcomes of non controlled industrial growth.
To day, the predictions of the Club de Rome are false, but the warning was correct. The loss of control of the financial and industrial growth is the result of a generalized dispise of our leaders for nature and its cycles.
THE TWO STEPS OF THE FINAL CRISIS
We can predict two steps in what we can whithout exaggeration the final end af a world. 1. The disaster. 2. The catastrophe.
1. The disaster. It is already at our door. The industrial tissue is in complete recession and the liquid assets are important. With ten thousand dollars you can afford to control one hundred more shareholdings tha, a year ago, and we do not know when it will stop. The result is a loss of liquidities and a strong deflation. It is a real disaster for our industrial richness and such domains as employment, medicine, freedom of change, and even real goods like gold. (It could be prohibited, or its value artificially drop by injection of gold in the market bay central banks).
2. The catastrophe. The liquidity assets are only papers, like currency and money. Their value comes bay what they represent. Now, we now that if in the past they stand for gold, industries and physical wealth, today they stands for themselves. And what they represent is worst than nothing: they stand for considerable debts and abyssal losses of value. So in the final step, both shares and money, will have no value. Violence, amazment, revolutions, change in societal behavior, bartering economy, will succed to recession.
CAN WE AVOID THE TWO STEPS OF THE CRISIS?
Yes. But we must before understand the logic of the two staps and that is difficult because our education and our common sense prevent us to evaluate them honestly. We must considerate that the crisis is not of the same nature than in 1929. Today there is no sanctuary, no country to help us. Another consideration is to accept to struggle against one of the main factors of the crisis : the globalization. We must accept to destroy integration and cut the links and the generalization of real time communications.
But there is another main factor of the crisis: the universal loss of meaning and the limitation of the value system to pleasure and utilitarian short term scales. This will be the subject of the second part of this paper.
Good Night and dream to a better wisdom for the world leaders.
Bruno Lussato.
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